Fig. 1

Model representation diagram. Abbreviation: CASP-19: control, autonomy, self-realisation and pleasure, 19 items; Comorb.: comorbidity; Int.: intervention; LTC: long-term care; MA fall: fall requiring medication attention; OOP: out-of-pocket; PS: public sector; QALY: quality-adjusted life year; SES: socioeconomic status. Notes: [1] Includes paid employment and unpaid work. [2] Intervention access rates are functions of eligibility (determined by covariates such as falls history) and implementation factors (demand and supply capacity); these can be altered by intervention scenarios. [3] For those experiencing recurrent falls with 1 + MA fall(s), the probability for experiencing a second MA fall is applied; MA falls are subdivided into hospitalised and non-hospitalised MA falls. [4] The share of LTC cost incurred by public sector depends on individual’s SES quartile. [5] Probability of GP contact and demand for self-referred intervention are updated longitudinally