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Table 3 Screening Tools and Geriatricians’ Prediction of Fallers at Follow-up

From: How accurate are geriatricians’ fall predictions?

 

Sensitivity (95% CI)a

Specificity (95% CI)

Positive LR (95% CI)

Negative LR (95% CI)

Positive PV (95% CI)

Negative PV (95% CI)

Accuracy (95% CI)

SIB

56.0 (34.9–75.6)

70.3 (57.6–81.1)

1.89 (1.13–3.15)

0.63 (0.39–1.00)

42.4 (25.5–60.8)

80.4 (67.6–89.8)

66.3 (55.5–76.0)

4-Stage Balance

48.0 (27.8–68.7)

64.1 (51.1–75.7)

1.34 (0.79–2.26)

0.81 (0.53–1.23)

34.3 (19.1–52.2)

75.9 (62.4–86.5)

59.6 (48.6–69.8)

TUG

52.0 (31.3–72.2)

73.4 (60.9–83.7)

1.95 (1.12–3.40)

0.65 (0.42–1.01)

43.3 (25.5–62.6)

79.7 (67.2–89.0)

67.4 (56.7–77.0)

30 sec chair stands

52.0 (31.3–72.2)

81.3 (69.5–89.9)

2.78 (1.47–5.24)

0.59 (0.39–0.90)

52.0 (31.3–72.2)

81.3 (69.5–89.9)

73.0 (62.6–81.9)

Examining Geriatrician’s Fall Risk Rating

76.0 (54.9–90.6)

54.7 (41.8–67.2)

1.68 (1.18–2.38)

0.44 (0.21–0.91)

39.6 (25.8–54.7)

85.4 (70.8–94.4)

60.7 (49.8–70.9)

Geriatrician 2

56.0 (34.9–75.6)

71.9 (59.2–82.4)

1.99 (1.18–3.36)

0.61 (0.38–0.98)

43.8 (26.4–62.3)

80.7 (68.1–90.0)

67.4 (56.7–77.0)

Geriatrician 3

52.0 (31.3–72.2)

79.7 (67.8–88.7)

2.56 (1.39–4.73)

0.60 (0.39–0.92)

50.0 (29.9–70.1)

81.0 (69.1–89.8)

71.9 (61.4–80.9)

Geriatrician 4

56.0 (34.9–75.6)

75.0 (62.6–85.0)

2.24 (1.29–3.88)

0.59 (0.37–0.93)

46.7 (28.3–65.7)

81.4 (69.1–90.3)

69.7 (59.0–79.0)

Geriatrician 5

52.0 (31.3–72.2)

59.4 (46.4–71.5)

1.28 (0.79–2.07)

0.81 (0.51–1.27)

33.3 (19.1–50.2)

76.0 (61.8–86.9)

57.3 (46.4–67.7)

Geriatrician 6

48.0 (27.8–68.7)

79.7 (67.8–88.7)

2.36 (1.25–4.46)

0.65 (0.44–0.97)

48.0 (27.8–68.7)

79.7 (67.8–88.7)

70.8 (60.2–80.0)

N = 89

Reported Fallers = 25

  1. aSimel DL, Samsa GP, Matchar DB. Likelihood ratios with confidence: sample size estimation for diagnostic test studies. J Clin Epidemiol 1991;44(8): 763–770
  2. CI Confidence intervals, SIB Stay Independent Brochure, TUG Timed-Up-and-Go, LR Likelihood ratio, PV Predictive value