Do changes in frailty, physical functioning, and cognitive functioning predict mortality in old age? Results from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam

Table 2 Added value of health indicators to mortality prediction based on age and sex

Model	Health Indicator	Five-year Mortality (220 died)		Ten-year Mortality (466 died)
Model	Health Indicator	AUC^a (95% CI)	P-value^b	AUC^a (95% CI)	P-value^b
Demographic variables	Age and sex	72.8 (69.0 – 76.5)		77.7 (74.8 – 80.5)
+ Current status	+ Frailty Phenotype	+ 1.6 (0.6 – 2.6)	0.001	+ 0.8 (0.0 – 1.6)	0.050
	+ Frailty Index	+ 3.3 (1.6 – 4.9)	< 0.001	+ 1.8 (0.5 – 3.1)	0.005
	+ Grip strength	+ 1.0 (0.3 – 1.7)	0.005	+ 0.6 (0.0 – 1.2)	0.040
	+ Walking speed	+ 0.7 (-0.0 – 1.4)	0.060	+ 0.4 (-0.1 – 0.8)	0.100
	+ MMSE	+ 1.2 (0.2 – 2.3)	0.020	+ 1.1 (0.4 – 1.8)	0.002
+ Three-year change	+ Frailty Phenotype	- 0.0 (-0.2 – 0.1)	0.400	- 0.1 (-0.2 – 0.0)	0.200
	+ Frailty Index	+ 1.1 (0.1 – 2.1)	0.030	+ 0.5 (-0.3 – 1.3)	0.200
	+ Grip strength	+ 0.3 (-0.0 – 0.7)	0.090	+ 0.2 (-0.1 – 0.5)	0.100
	+ Walking speed	+ 0.4 (-0.1 – 0.9)	0.090	+ 0.1 (-0.2 – 0.4)	0.500
	+ MMSE	+ 0.1 (-0.3 – 0.6)	0.600	- 0.0 (-0.4 – 0.3)	0.900
+ Current status + Three-year change	+ Frailty Phenotype	+ 1.9 (0.6 – 3.1)	0.003	+ 0.9 (0.0 – 1.9)	0.050
	+ Frailty Index	+ 3.2 (1.6 – 4.8)	< 0.001	+ 1.7 (0.5 – 3.0)	0.008
	+ Grip strength	+ 0.9 (0.1 – 1.6)	0.020	+ 0.5 (-0.1 – 1.1)	0.100
	+ Walking speed	+ 0.6 (-0.2 – 1.3)	0.100	+ 0.4 (-0.2 – 0.9)	0.200
	+ MMSE	+ 1.2 (0.2 – 2.3)	0.020	+ 1.2 (0.5 – 1.9)	0.001

^aAUC Discrimination ability as measured using Area Under the Curve in percentages
^bP-values indicate the significance of the difference between a model containing age and sex plus a health indicator and the reference model that is age and sex only given the null hypothesis that the health indicator has no added discrimination ability

ISSN: 1471-2318