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Table 2 Projected primary informal family caregiver labor market withdrawal, labor required and work hours lost

From: Projecting the effects of long-term care policy on the labor market participation of primary informal family caregivers of elderly with disability: insights from a dynamic simulation model

LTC Interventions Caregivers in labor market Increase in caregivers working New paid labor to implement policy Percentage of caregivers dropping out Labor requirement ratio
2020 2030 2020 2030 2020 2030 2020 2030 2020 2030
No LTC services 23,400 37,700 28.5 27.8
[18,800-28,000] [29,300-45,900] [24.4-32.9] [23.6-32.7]
Current policy 36,500 58,700 13,000 20,900 21,500 35,500 7.9 6.9 1.6 1.7
[32,300-40,700] [50,800-66,400] [11,500-14,400] [18,400-23,300] [17,600-25,400] [28,000-43,400] [6.4-9.9] [5.2-9.0] [1.3-2.1] [1.3-2.2]
Pro-HCBS 37,400 60,000 13,800 22,300 22,100 37,800 6.6 5.5 1.6 1.7
[33,100-41,600] [51,700-68,500] [12,200-15,400] [19,200-25,400] [18,200-26,100] [29,800-45,900] [5.1-8.4] [4.2-7.1] [1.2-2.0] [1.3-2.2]
Pro-FDW 38,700 62,000 15,200 24,100 33,600 56,600 4.5 3.7 2.2 2.3
[34,300-43,100] [53,400-70,300] [13,300-17,100] [20,700-27,800] [28,500-38,700] [46,200-66,900] [3.6-5.6] [2.9-4.6] [1.8-2.7] [1.9-2.9]
Pro-Nursing Home 37,400 59,200 13,900 21,500 16,400 27,200 6.5 6.3 1.2 1.3
[33,000-41,700] [51,000-67,400] [12,200-15,600] [18,600-24,400] [13,700-19,200] [22,100-32,600] [5.2-8.2] [4.9-8.1] [0.9-1.5] [1.0-1.6]
All-in 39,200 63,100 15,700 25,300 27,100 48,100 3.8 2.4 1.7 1.9
[34,700-43,700] [54,400-71,900] [13,600-17,800] [21,600-29,300] [23,700-30,700] [41,100-55,000] [3.0-4.7] [1.9-3.2] [1.4-2.1] [1.5-2.3 ]