Projecting the effects of long-term care policy on the labor market participation of primary informal family caregivers of elderly with disability: insights from a dynamic simulation model

Table 2 Projected primary informal family caregiver labor market withdrawal, labor required and work hours lost

LTC Interventions	Caregivers in labor market		Increase in caregivers working		New paid labor to implement policy		Percentage of caregivers dropping out		Labor requirement ratio
LTC Interventions	2020	2030	2020	2030	2020	2030	2020	2030	2020	2030
No LTC services	23,400	37,700	—	—	—	—	28.5	27.8	—	—
No LTC services	[18,800-28,000]	[29,300-45,900]	—	—	—	—	[24.4-32.9]	[23.6-32.7]	—	—
Current policy	36,500	58,700	13,000	20,900	21,500	35,500	7.9	6.9	1.6	1.7
Current policy	[32,300-40,700]	[50,800-66,400]	[11,500-14,400]	[18,400-23,300]	[17,600-25,400]	[28,000-43,400]	[6.4-9.9]	[5.2-9.0]	[1.3-2.1]	[1.3-2.2]
Pro-HCBS	37,400	60,000	13,800	22,300	22,100	37,800	6.6	5.5	1.6	1.7
Pro-HCBS	[33,100-41,600]	[51,700-68,500]	[12,200-15,400]	[19,200-25,400]	[18,200-26,100]	[29,800-45,900]	[5.1-8.4]	[4.2-7.1]	[1.2-2.0]	[1.3-2.2]
Pro-FDW	38,700	62,000	15,200	24,100	33,600	56,600	4.5	3.7	2.2	2.3
Pro-FDW	[34,300-43,100]	[53,400-70,300]	[13,300-17,100]	[20,700-27,800]	[28,500-38,700]	[46,200-66,900]	[3.6-5.6]	[2.9-4.6]	[1.8-2.7]	[1.9-2.9]
Pro-Nursing Home	37,400	59,200	13,900	21,500	16,400	27,200	6.5	6.3	1.2	1.3
Pro-Nursing Home	[33,000-41,700]	[51,000-67,400]	[12,200-15,600]	[18,600-24,400]	[13,700-19,200]	[22,100-32,600]	[5.2-8.2]	[4.9-8.1]	[0.9-1.5]	[1.0-1.6]
All-in	39,200	63,100	15,700	25,300	27,100	48,100	3.8	2.4	1.7	1.9
All-in	[34,700-43,700]	[54,400-71,900]	[13,600-17,800]	[21,600-29,300]	[23,700-30,700]	[41,100-55,000]	[3.0-4.7]	[1.9-3.2]	[1.4-2.1]	[1.5-2.3 ]

ISSN: 1471-2318