Table 3 Future prediction of cost of illness (COI) for the three cancer types
From: Cost of illness in a super-aged society—comparison of breast, lung, and prostate cancer in Japan
2017a | 2020 | 2023 | 2026 | 2029 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Estimated population (thousand persons) | 126,706 | 124,100 | 122,122 | 119,891 | 117,465 | |
% of individuals aged ≥ 65 years | 27.7% | 29.1% | 29.8% | 30.5% | 31.2% | |
Breast cancer | Number of deaths (person) | 14,423 | 15,504 | 16,435 | 17,322 | 18,288 |
% of individuals aged ≥ 65 years | 63.6% | 63.9% | 65.2% | 66.3% | 67.6% | |
Average age at death (year) | 68.8 | 69.3 | 70.2 | 70.9 | 71.7 | |
Direct cost (billion yen) | 254.1 | 243.8 | 257.0 | 268.8 | 279.8 | |
Morbidity cost (billion yen) | 56.9 | 51.5 | 51.1 | 50.6 | 49.9 | |
Mortality cost (billion yen) | 592.7 | 618.3 | 625.7 | 632.5 | 636.2 | |
% of individuals aged ≥ 65 years | 31.0% | 30.6% | 31.2% | 31.9% | 33.0% | |
Mortality cost per person (million yen) | 41.1 | 39.9 | 38.1 | 36.5 | 34.8 | |
COI (billion yen) | 903.7 | 913.5 | 933.8 | 951.8 | 965.9 | |
Lung cancer | Number of deaths (person) | 73,883 | 80,969 | 83,547 | 84,630 | 87,727 |
% of individuals aged ≥ 65 years | 90.2% | 90.2% | 90.8% | 91.1% | 91.4% | |
Average age at death (year) | 76.8 | 77.5 | 78.2 | 78.6 | 79.3 | |
Direct cost (billion yen) | 399.9 | 355.8 | 357.6 | 369.5 | 385.6 | |
Morbidity cost (billion yen) | 52.3 | 47.9 | 43.9 | 41.2 | 39.5 | |
Mortality cost (billion yen) | 1095.4 | 1135.6 | 1103.1 | 1070.1 | 1051.5 | |
% of individuals aged ≥ 65 years | 63.7% | 62.3% | 62.9% | 63.3% | 64.0% | |
Mortality cost per person (million yen) | 14.8 | 14.0 | 13.2 | 12.6 | 12.0 | |
COI (billion yen) | 1547.6 | 1539.2 | 1504.6 | 1480.9 | 1476.7 | |
Prostate cancer | Number of deaths (person) | 12,869 | 13,599 | 14,340 | 14,766 | 15,427 |
% of individuals aged ≥ 65 years | 97.1% | 97.5% | 97.7% | 97.9% | 98.0% | |
Average age at death (year) | 80.7 | 81.1 | 81.6 | 82.0 | 82.5 | |
Direct cost (billion yen) | 279.6 | 283.8 | 297.5 | 314.1 | 328.6 | |
Morbidity cost (billion yen) | 18.7 | 18.1 | 17.6 | 17.2 | 17.2 | |
Mortality cost (billion yen) | 92.5 | 92.1 | 91.4 | 89.9 | 89.1 | |
% of individuals aged ≥ 65 years | 82.0% | 83.1% | 83.8% | 84.2% | 84.8% | |
Mortality cost per person (million yen) | 7.2 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 5.8 | |
COI (billion yen) | 390.8 | 394.0 | 406.6 | 421.2 | 434.9 | |