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Table 5 Validation of the prognostic index: comparing the 12-predictor model performance by point score and comparing our index to the performances of the Lee et al. (2006) & Kobayashi et al. (2017) indices

From: Predicting mortality in The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA): development of a four-year index and comparison with international measures

 

No. of individuals who died/ No. of individuals at risk (%)

Point Score

Development Cohort

Validation Cohort

Lee et al. (2006)

Kobayashi et al. (2017)

0

3/741 (< 1)

5/720 (1)

0/372 (< 1)

2/393 (1)

1

6/815 (1)

9/786 (1)

5/379 (1)

4/439 (1)

2

7/427 (2)

10/445 (2)

10/785 (1)

9/523 (2)

3

11/554 (2)

21/548 (4)

14/610 (2)

18/676 (3)

4

13/378 (3)

13/337 (4)

26/542 (5)

8/306 (3)

5

30/429 (7)

31/466 (7)

17/436 (4)

16/418 (4)

6

23/222 (10)

28/211 (13)

21/307 (7)

8/213 (4)

7

33/219 (15)

22/184 (12)

38/241 (16)

26/373 (7)

8

25/131 (19)

29/147 (20)

18/122 (15)

12/170 (7)

9

18/75 (24)

19/78 (24)

17/91 (19)

35/209 (17)

10

20/64 (31)

24/62 (39)

20/58 (34)

13/92 (14)

11

10/24 (42)

9/29 (31)

10/32 (31)

17/64 (27)

12

6/11 (56)

5/9 (56)

18/40 (45)

11/51 (22)

13

8/14 (57)

2/15 (13)

6/15 (40)

10/32 (31)

 > 14

3/4 (75)

3/7 (43)

8/23 (35)

8/94 (9)

ROC Area

0.816

0.774

0.784

0.779

  1. ROC receiver operating characteristic