Risk Factor | Adjusted OR (95% CI)* 12 Predictor Model | Points | Adjusted OR (95% CI)* 14 Predictor Model | Points |
---|---|---|---|---|
Demographics | ||||
Male | 1.5 (1.1–2.1) | 1 | 1.5 (1.1–2.1) | 1 |
Age 65–69 | 2.5 (1.5–4.2) | 2 | 2.5 (1.5–4.2) | 2 |
Age 70–74 | 4.6 (2.9–7.4) | 4 | 4.7 (2.9–7.6) | 4 |
Age 75–79 | 5.9 (3.6–9.5) | 4 | 6.0 (3.7–9.8) | 4 |
Age 80–84 | 10.7 (6.4–17.9) | 5 | 11.2 (6.7–18.8) | 6 |
Age 85 + | 20.6 (11.9–35.7) | 7 | 23.9 (13.7–41.6) | 7 |
Cardiovascular (CV) Illness | ||||
Heart Attack | 1.9 (1.2–3.1) | 1 | 1.8 (1.1–2.9) | 1 |
Non-CV diagnosis of serious illness | ||||
Cancer | 3.5 (2.3–5.5) | 3 | 3.3 (2.1–5.1) | 3 |
Other Health & Lifestyle Factors | ||||
Smoked past age 30 | 2.2 (1.6–3.6) | 2 | 2.2 (1.6–2.9) | 2 |
Functional Variables—‘Difficulty with’ | ||||
Activities of daily living | ||||
Walk 100 m | 2.4 (1.6–3.5) | 2 | 2.1 (1.4–3.1) | 2 |
Using the toilet | 3.5 (1.5–8.1) | 3 | 3.2 (1.4–5.4) | 3 |
Other measures of functional difficulties | ||||
Lifting 10lbs | 1.8 (1.3–2.5) | 1 | 1.6 (1.1–2.3) | 1 |
Self-Report Wellbeing | ||||
Described physical health as ‘poor’ | 1.7 (1.1–2.8) | 1 | ||
Healthcare Utilization | ||||
More than 1 ED or inpatient admission in last year | 1.7 (1.2–2.4) | 1 | ||
ROC | ||||
Development cohort | 0.816 | 0.825 | ||
Validation cohort | 0.774 | 0.783 |