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Table 4 Independent risk factors for 4-year mortality in the development cohort (N = 4,121) in the multivariable analysis

From: Predicting mortality in The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA): development of a four-year index and comparison with international measures

Risk Factor

Adjusted OR (95% CI)* 12 Predictor Model

Points

Adjusted OR (95% CI)* 14 Predictor Model

Points

Demographics

Male

1.5 (1.1–2.1)

1

1.5 (1.1–2.1)

1

Age 65–69

2.5 (1.5–4.2)

2

2.5 (1.5–4.2)

2

Age 70–74

4.6 (2.9–7.4)

4

4.7 (2.9–7.6)

4

Age 75–79

5.9 (3.6–9.5)

4

6.0 (3.7–9.8)

4

Age 80–84

10.7 (6.4–17.9)

5

11.2 (6.7–18.8)

6

Age 85 + 

20.6 (11.9–35.7)

7

23.9 (13.7–41.6)

7

Cardiovascular (CV) Illness

Heart Attack

1.9 (1.2–3.1)

1

1.8 (1.1–2.9)

1

Non-CV diagnosis of serious illness

Cancer

3.5 (2.3–5.5)

3

3.3 (2.1–5.1)

3

Other Health & Lifestyle Factors

Smoked past age 30

2.2 (1.6–3.6)

2

2.2 (1.6–2.9)

2

Functional Variables—‘Difficulty with’

Activities of daily living

  Walk 100 m

2.4 (1.6–3.5)

2

2.1 (1.4–3.1)

2

  Using the toilet

3.5 (1.5–8.1)

3

3.2 (1.4–5.4)

3

Other measures of functional difficulties

  Lifting 10lbs

1.8 (1.3–2.5)

1

1.6 (1.1–2.3)

1

Self-Report Wellbeing

Described physical health as ‘poor’

  

1.7 (1.1–2.8)

1

Healthcare Utilization

More than 1 ED or inpatient admission in last year

  

1.7 (1.2–2.4)

1

ROC

Development cohort

0.816

 

0.825

 

Validation cohort

0.774

 

0.783

 
  1. CI confidence interval, OR odds ratio. Each OR was adjusted for the other risk factors in the table. *For age, the reference group is those aged 50–64