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Table 4 Proposed prognostic model and FRAT-up model performance to estimate risk of fall-related hospitalisations within 90 and 365 days post entry into permanent residential aged care

From: The risk of fall-related hospitalisations at entry into permanent residential aged care

  Model performance, AUC (95%CI)a
Out-of-sample validation, SAb Out-of-sample validation, NSWc
Fall-related hospitalisations within 90 days
 Proposed Model 0.71(0.68–0.74) 0.62(0.61–0.63)
 FRAT-up Model 0.66(0.62–0.69) 0.60(0.59–0.61)
Fall-related hospitalisations within 365 days
 Proposed Model 0.64(0.62–0.67) 0.60(0.59–0.60)
 FRAT-up Model 0.60(0.58–0.66) 0.58(0.57–0.58)
  1. AUC Area under the receiver operating characteritics curve, CI Confidence intervals, SA South Australia, NSW New South Wales
  2. aArea under the receiver operating characteristic curve
  3. bValidation performed on 20% South Australian cohort not used in models’ development
  4. cValidation performed on individuals’ entering residential aged care in New South Wales between 2012 and 2017