The risk of fall-related hospitalisations at entry into permanent residential aged care

BMC Geriatrics

Table 4 Proposed prognostic model and FRAT-up model performance to estimate risk of fall-related hospitalisations within 90 and 365 days post entry into permanent residential aged care

	Model performance, AUC (95%CI)^a
	Out-of-sample validation, SA^b	Out-of-sample validation, NSW^c
Fall-related hospitalisations within 90 days
Proposed Model	0.71(0.68–0.74)	0.62(0.61–0.63)
FRAT-up Model	0.66(0.62–0.69)	0.60(0.59–0.61)
Fall-related hospitalisations within 365 days
Proposed Model	0.64(0.62–0.67)	0.60(0.59–0.60)
FRAT-up Model	0.60(0.58–0.66)	0.58(0.57–0.58)

AUC Area under the receiver operating characteritics curve, CI Confidence intervals, SA South Australia, NSW New South Wales
^aArea under the receiver operating characteristic curve
^bValidation performed on 20% South Australian cohort not used in models’ development
^cValidation performed on individuals’ entering residential aged care in New South Wales between 2012 and 2017

ISSN: 1471-2318