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Table 1 Performance scores, reflected as pooled AUC, per country for each risk score

From: Predicting unplanned hospital visits in older home care recipients: a cross-country external validation study

  Hospital admissions ED visits Any hospital visit
Italy, N (%) 220 (44.1) 166 (33.3) 259 (51.9)
Risk score Pooled AUC (95% CI) Pooled AUC (95% CI) Pooled AUC (95%-CI)
DIVERT 0.57 (0.51–0.62) 0.56 (0.50–0.61) 0.58 (0.53–0.63)
CARS 0.61 (0.55–0.65) 0.58 (0.53–0.63) 0.62 (0.57–0.67)
EARLI 0.60 (0.55–0.65) 0.54 (0.48–0.59) 0.67 (0.52–0.62)
PAA-score 0.61 (0.57–0.66) 0.63 (0.58–0.68) 0.62 (0.57–0.67)
CHESS 0.57 (0.52–0.62) 0.52 (0.47–0.57) 0.57 (0.52–0.61)
FFC 0.55 (0.50–0.60) 0.51 (0.46–0.56) 0.53 (0.48–0.58)
FI 0.54 (0.49–0.59) 0.52 (0.47–0.57) 0.52 (0.47–0.57)
the Netherlands, N (%) 41 (17.0) 27 (11.1) 58 (23.6)
Risk score Pooled AUC (95% CI) Pooled AUC (95% CI) Pooled AUC (95%-CI)
DIVERT 0.58 (0.47–0.68) 0.65 (0.53–0.75) 0.60 (0.50–0.69)
CARS 0.55 (0.43–0.65) 0.63 (0.49–0.74) 0.58 (0.48–0.67)
EARLI 0.55 (0.43–0.65) 0.60 (0.46–0.73) 0.56 (0.46–0.66)
PAA-score 0.53 (0.44–0.62) 0.54 (0.45–0.63) 0.55 (0.47–0.63)
CHESS 0.52 (0.41–0.63) 0.60 (0.48–0.71) 0.53 (0.44–0.63)
FFC 0.52 (0.42–0.62) 0.57 (0.42–0.71) 0.52 (0.43–0.60)
FI 0.56 (0.45–0.66) 0.54 (0.38–0.68) 0.56 (0.46–0.66)
Belgium, N (%) 66 (14.0) 15 (3.3) 71 (15.2)
Risk score Pooled AUC (95% CI) Pooled AUC (95% CI) Pooled AUC (95%-CI)
DIVERT 0.68 (0.59–0.75) 0.68 (0.51–0.81) 0.67 (0.59–0.74)
CARS 0.67 (0.55–0.77) 0.68 (0.47–0.83) 0.66 (0.56–0.75)
EARLI 0.63 (0.55–0.71) 0.70 (0.51–0.84) 0.63 (0.55–0.71)
PAA-score 0.67 (0.61–0.73) 0.70 (0.55–0.81) 0.67 (0.61–0.73)
CHESS 0.57 (0.50–0.64) 0.54 (0.39–0.68) 0.57 (0.50–0.64)
FFC 0.55 (0.48–0.62) 0.57 (0.44–0.70) 0.55 (0.49–0.62)
FI 0.53 (0.45–0.60) 0.52 (0.39–0.65) 0.53 (0.46–0.60)
Iceland, N (%) 75 (21.0) 30 (8.4) 92 (25.8)
Risk score (range) Pooled AUC (95% CI) Pooled AUC (95% CI) Pooled AUC (95%-CI)
DIVERT 0.73 (0.66–0.79) 0.67 (0.55–0.77) 0.74 (0.68–0.80)
CARS 0.72 (0.65–0.79) 0.72 (0.61–0.81) 0.74 (0.67–0.80)
EARLI 0.72 (0.65–0.79) 0.55 (0.43–0.67) 0.69 (0.61–0.75)
PAA-score 0.69 (0.63–0.75) 0.65 (0.55–0.74) 0.69 (0.63–0.75)
CHESS 0.57 (0.50–0.64) 0.58 (0.48–0.67) 0.58 (0.51–0.64)
FFC 0.58 (0.49–0.66) 0.53 (0.43–0.63) 0.56 (0.48–0.64)
FI 0.60 (0.53–0.67) 0.55 (0.45–0.65) 0.60 (0.53–0.67)
Finland, N (%) 87 (20.0) 85 (19.6) 142 (32.7)
Risk score (range) Pooled AUC (95% CI) Pooled AUC (95% CI) Pooled AUC (95%-CI)
DIVERT 0.69 (0.62–0.75) 0.72 (0.67–0.77) 0.73 (0.67–0.77)
CARS 0.63 (0.56–0.69) 0.61 (0.54–0.67) 0.64 (0.58–0.70)
EARLI 0.62 (0.55–0.69) 0.57 (0.50–0.64) 0.60 (0.54–0.65)
PAA-score 0.66 (0.59–0.72) 0.70 (0.63–0.76) 0.69 (0.64–0.74)
CHESS 0.55 (0.48–0.61) 0.56 (0.49–0.62) 0.53 (0.48–0.59)
FFC 0.56 (0.50–0.61) 0.55 (0.49–0.61) 0.55 (0.50–0.61)
FI 0.61 (0.54–0.68) 0.54 (0.47–0.61) 0.58 (0.52–0.64)
Germany, N (%) 51 (11.5) 19 (4.3) 63 (14.2)
Risk score (range) Pooled AUC (95% CI) Pooled AUC (95% CI) Pooled AUC (95%-CI)
DIVERT 0.64 (0.55–0.72) 0.52 (0.38–0.66) 0.62 (0.54–0.70)
CARS 0.59 (0.50–0.68) 0.54 (0.40–0.68) 0.59 (0.51–0.67)
EARLI 0.65 (0.56–0.73) 0.59 (0.45–0.72) 0.65 (0.57–0.72)
PAA-score 0.61 (0.54–0.68) 0.55 (0.44–0.66) 0.61 (0.54–0.67)
CHESS 0.59 (0.50–0.67) 0.53 (0.40–0.65) 0.56 (0.48–0.63)
FFC 0.54 (0.45–0.61) 0.58 (0.44–0.71) 0.51 (0.43–0.58)
FI 0.51 (0.42–0.60) 0.52 (0.38–0.66) 0.52 (0.43–0.60)
  1. Abbreviations: 95% CI 95% confidence interval; AUC area under the curve; CARS Community Assessment Risk Screen; CHESS MDS Changes in Health, End-stage disease and Symptoms and Signs; DIVERT Detection of Indicators and Vulnerabilities for Emergency Room Trips; EARLI Emergency Admission Risk Likelihood Index; ED emergency department; FFC Fried’s frailty criteria; FI frailty index; PAA previous acute admissions. Number of imputed outcomes per country [unplanned admissions - ED visits - any unplanned hospital visit]: Italy [3 - 2 - 3]; Netherlands [48 - 47 - 48]; Belgium [38 - 36 - 38]; Iceland [15 - 15 - 15]; Finland [20 - 20 - 20]; Germany [46 - 46 - 46]