Table 4 Annual proportion trends (by 4-year period, 2000 to 2015) for the 10 most frequent primary ICD-9 diagnostic groups in inpatients aged ≥85, according to the MBDS, and projection for 2030
Disease (ICD-9) | Annual N (%) diagnoses in discharged patients aged ≥85 | P value | AAPC | Correlation coefficient | Annual % of primary diagnoses in discharged patients aged ≥85 in 2030 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2000–2003 | 2004–2007 | 2008–2011 | 2012–2015 | |||||
Femoral neck fracture (820) | 14,317 (8.07%) | 17,320 (7.46%) | 21,875 (7.10%) | 25,911 (6.77%) | < 0.001 | −2.10% | −0.97 | 3.19% |
Heart failure (428) | 13,925 (7.84%) | 20,124 (8.63%) | 30,031 (9.72%) | 40,722 (10.62%) | < 0.001 | 1.34% | 0.97 | 11.33% |
Neoplasms (2) | 13,581 (7.65%) | 18,585 (7.99%) | 24,639 (8.00%) | 28,007 (7.34%) | < 0.001 | −1.64% | − 0.81 | 5.07% |
Ischemic encephalopathy (430–438) | 12,367 (6.97%) | 14,895 (6.41%) | 19,543 (6.34%) | 22,374 (5.85%) | < 0.001 | −2.39% | −0.99 | 2.85% |
Pneumonia (480–486) | 11,303 (6.36%) | 15,012 (6.46%) | 20,940 (6.79%) | 28,267 (7.36%) | < 0.001 | 0.67% | 0.06 | – |
COPD (490–492) | 7505 (4.23%) | 8784 (3.80%) | 10,217 (3.32%) | 12,124 (3.17%) | < 0.001 | −2.9% | −0.91 | 0.74% |
Ischemic cardiomyopathy (410–414) | 7473 (4.20%) | 9377 (4.04%) | 10,896 (3.54%) | 12,028 (3.15%) | < 0.001 | −2.65% | −0.93 | 0.9% |
Other respiratory diseases (518–519) | 6907 (3.87%) | 14,532 (6.15%) | 25,716 (8.34%) | 32,556 (8.49%) | < 0.001 | 5.74% | 0.86 | 12.99% |
Other alterations of urethra and urinary tract (599) | 5484 (3.08%) | 8022 (3.43%) | 14,050 (4.54%) | 19,973 (5.2%) | < 0.001 | 3.64% | 0,97 | 6.67% |
Cholelithiasis (574) | 5453 (3.07%) | 7105 (3.06%) | 10,137 (3.28%) | 12,574 (3.28%) | < 0.001 | −0.41% | −0.57 | – |