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Table 1 Projected number of older adults with impairment (in millions) by gender by 95% uncertainty interval. Percentages are unadjusted

From: Trends in functional disability and cognitive impairment among the older adult in China up to 2060: estimates from a dynamic multi-state population model

 

2015

2060

Annual relative change (%)

Relative change (2015–2060)

All older adult

 Total older adult

159·07 (158·98–159·16)

439·34 (438·31–440·37)

3·92% (3·9–3·93)

176·1% (175·6–176·6)

 Older adult without impairment

141·15 (141·04–141·26)

343·16 (342·44–343·88)

3·18% (3·17–3·19)

143·1% (142·7–143·4)

 Older adult with impairment

17·920 (17·829–18·012)

96·184 (95·280–97·087)

9·71% (9·65–9·76)

436·7% (434·4–439)

 Fraction with impairment (%)

11·26% (11·21–11·32)

21·83% (21·66–22·00)

2.08%(2.07–2.09)

93.6%(93.15–94.05)

Female

 Total older adult

81·175 (81·108–81·242)

221·45 (220·78–222·13)

3·84% (3·83–3·85)

172·8% (172·2–173·4)

 Older adult without impairment

69·782 (69·709–69·856)

164·51 (164·09–164·93)

3·017% (3–3·025)

135·7% (135·4–136·1)

 Older adult with impairment

11·393 (11·331–11.455)

56.943 (56.384–57.502)

8.88% (8.84–8.93)

399.8% (397.6–401.9)

 Fraction with impairment (%)

14·03% (13·96–14·10)

25·62% (25·43–25·81)

1.84%(1.83–1.85)

82.61%(82.16–83.0)

Men

 Total older adult

77·90 (77·84–77·96)

217·88 (217·19–218·58)

3·99% (3·98–4·01)

179·6% (179–180·3)

 Older adult without impairment

71·376 (71·300–71·452)

178·64 (178·11–179·18)

3·34% (3·33–3·35)

150·2% (149·8–150·7)

 Older adult with impairment

6·527 (6·472–6·582)

39·241 (38·684–39·798)

11·14% (11·06–11·21)

501·2% (497·7–504·6)

 Fraction with impairment (%)

8·38% (8·31–8·45)

17·92% (17·71–18·14)

2.53%(2.51–2.55)

113.84%(113.12–114.67)