Table 4 Falling proportions of predicted cases and corresponding cut-off values on a validation data set (n = 20,364)
From: Clinically useful prediction of hospital admissions in an older population
Proportion predicted | Cut-off values | No. of true positive cases | No. of false positive cases | No. of true negative cases | No. of false negative cases | Sensitivity | Specificity | Positive predictive value | Negative predicted value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
95% | 0.101 | 3960 | 15,438 | 889 | 77 | 98% | 5% | 20% | 92% |
90% | 0.108 | 3869 | 14,416 | 1911 | 168 | 96% | 12% | 21% | 92% |
85% | 0.114 | 3780 | 13,485 | 2842 | 257 | 94% | 17% | 22% | 92% |
80% | 0.120 | 3660 | 12,651 | 3676 | 377 | 91% | 23% | 22% | 91% |
75% | 0.127 | 3544 | 11,659 | 4668 | 493 | 88% | 29% | 23% | 90% |
70% | 0.133 | 3447 | 10,801 | 5526 | 590 | 85% | 34% | 24% | 90% |
65% | 0.140 | 3322 | 9900 | 6427 | 715 | 82% | 39% | 25% | 90% |
60% | 0.148 | 3160 | 9016 | 7311 | 877 | 78% | 45% | 26% | 89% |
55% | 0.157 | 3001 | 8099 | 8228 | 1036 | 74% | 50% | 27% | 89% |
50% | 0.165 | 2862 | 7303 | 9024 | 1175 | 71% | 55% | 28% | 88% |
45% | 0.175 | 2682 | 6446 | 9881 | 1355 | 66% | 61% | 29% | 88% |
40% | 0.186 | 2501 | 5639 | 10,688 | 1536 | 62% | 65% | 31% | 87% |
35% | 0.199 | 2310 | 4813 | 11,514 | 1727 | 57% | 71% | 32% | 87% |
30% | 0.215 | 2050 | 4004 | 12,323 | 1987 | 51% | 75% | 34% | 86% |
25% | 0.234 | 1841 | 3213 | 13,114 | 2196 | 46% | 80% | 36% | 86% |
20% | 0.258 | 1565 | 2486 | 13,841 | 2472 | 39% | 85% | 39% | 85% |
15% | 0.294 | 1257 | 1775 | 14,552 | 2780 | 31% | 89% | 41% | 84% |
10% | 0.349 | 904 | 1130 | 15,197 | 3133 | 22% | 93% | 44% | 83% |
5% | 0.446 | 503 | 511 | 15,816 | 3534 | 12% | 97% | 50% | 82% |