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Table 2 The twenty most significant variables predicting the risk for unplanned admission to hospital

From: Clinically useful prediction of hospital admissions in an older population

 

Number

% unplanned hospital admission

Crude OR

95% CI

Total

 

20,364

20.3

Categorical Variables

 Diagnoses in hospital care

  E11 Type 2 diabetes mellitus

No

19,718

19.5

1 (ref)

Yes

646

43.3

3.15

(2.69–3.70)

  I10 Essential hypertension

No

18,174

18.3

1 (ref)

Yes

2190

36.5

2.57

(2.33–2.82)

  I25 Chronic ischaemic heart disease

No

19,663

19.5

1 (ref)

Yes

701

42.9

3.11

(2.67–3.63)

  I48 Atrial fibrillation and flutter

No

19,235

19.0

1 (ref)

Yes

1129

42.2

3.12

(2.76–3.53)

  I50 Heart failure

No

19,712

19.4

1 (ref)

Yes

652

47.5

3.77

(3.22–4.41)

  J44 Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

No

20,046

19.8

1 (ref)

Yes

318

47.8

3.70

(2.96–4.62)

  N18 Chronic renal failure

No

20,179

20.0

1 (ref)

Yes

185

53.0

4.51

(3.37–6.04)

  Z92 Personal history of medical treatment

No

19,596

19.3

1 (ref)

Yes

768

44.9

3.41

(2.94–3.94)

  Z95 Presence of cardiac and vascular implants and grafts

No

19,741

19.6

1 (ref)

Yes

623

42.2

3.00

(2.55–3.53)

 Diagnoses in open-clinic visits

  I25 Chronic ischaemic heart disease

No

18,294

19.2

1 (ref)

Yes

2070

30.0

1.80

(1.63–1.99)

  I48 Atrial fibrillation and flutter

No

17,808

18.5

1 (ref)

Yes

2556

32.4

2.11

(1.92–2.31)

  I50 Heart failure

No

18,936

18.9

1 (ref)

Yes

1428

38.9

2.73

(2.44–3.06)

  R06 Abnormalities of breathing

No

19,445

19.5

1 (ref)

Yes

919

35.8

2.30

(1.99–2.64)

  R07 Pain in throat and chest

No

19,504

19.6

1 (ref)

Yes

860

36.3

2.34

(2.02–2.70)

  Z51 Other medical care

No

19,431

19.5

1 (ref)

Yes

933

37.3

2.46

(2.14–2.82)

Continuous Variablesa, b

 Age

 

81

(75–106)

1.05

(1.04–1.05)

 Emergency room (ER) visits

 

0

(0–25)

1.52

(1.47–1.57)

 Non-physician visits

 

4

(0–210)

1.02

(1.02–1.03)

 Physician visits

 

3

(0–100)

1.08

(1.07–1.09)

 Previous in-ward hospital stays

 

0

(0–16)

1.56

(1.50–1.62)

  1. aMedians were reported as appropriate for continuous variables. bRange was reported as appropriate for continuous variables. OR Odds Ratio, CI Confidence interval. Hospital admissions within 12 months from the training sample (n = 20,364) expressed as crude odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) from univariable analysis. Variables are sorted by name and all p-values < 0.001