Skip to main content

Table 1 Transition probabilities applied in the cost-effectiveness model

From: The effectiveness and cost effectiveness of a hospital avoidance program in a residential aged care facility: a prospective cohort study and modelled decision analysis

Parameters

Base case estimate

SD

Source

Transition probabilities:

 Intervention cohort

  Daily probability of sub-acute episode

0.003

0.007

Study data

  Proportion of sub-acute episodes treated within the facility

0.670

0.388

Study data

  Daily probability of sub-acute episodes admitted to hospital

0.722

0.288

Study data

  Daily probability of residents being discharged from hospital

0.283

0.150

Study data

 Usual care cohort

  Daily probability of residents being admitted to hospital

0.001

0.004

Study data

  Daily probability of residents being discharged from hospital

0.151

0.072

Study data

 All residents

  Daily probability of death

0.0011

0.0001

Study data

Costs

 New diagnostic equipment (annualised)a

  Bladder Scanner ×1

1714

672

Study data

  ECG Machine ×1

351

138

Study data

  Vital Signs Monitor ×1

277

109

Study data

  RACF bed day

194

76

[35]

  Ambulance transfer to hospital

649

254

[36]

  Hospital bed day

1807b

1028

[14]

Utility values

 RACF residents

0.514

0.252

[37]

 Elderly inpatients admitted from RACF

0.44

0.4

[38]

  1. RACF residential aged care facility; SD standard deviation; ECG electrocardiogram
  2. aCosts were annualised over a useful life of 7 years according to Australian government depreciation schedules (Income Tax Assessment Act, Income Tax (Effective Life of Depreciating Assets) Determination 2015)
  3. bInflated to 2018 dollars using an index of hospital price inflation [39]