Development of a clinical prediction model for the onset of functional decline in people aged 65–75 years: pooled analysis of four European cohort studies

Table 2 Final model developed in pooled data of 65–75 year old people from the four cohorts (n = 2560)

Predictor	Beta^a	Odds ratio^a	95%CI^a	Likelihood ratio test p-value
Intercept ActiFE-ULM	−9.273
Intercept ELSA	−9.285
Intercept InCHIANTI	−9.528
Intercept LASA	−9.440
Sociodemographic variables
Age, years	0.065	1.07	(1.03–1.10)	< 0.001
Lifestyle and clinical variables
BMI, kg/m²	0.086	1.09	(1.06–1.12)	< 0.001
Cardiovascular disease	0.470	1.60	(1.24–2.01)	< 0.001
Diabetes	0.396	1.49	(1.06–2.09)	0.018
COPD	0.704	2.02	(1.37–2.98)	< 0.001
Arthritis	0.351	1.42	(1.14–1.77)	0.001
Depressive symptoms^b	0.642	1.90	(1.43–2.53)	< 0.001
Physical performance variables
Handgrip strength, kg	−0.015	0.99	(0.98–1.00)	0.002
Z-score gait speed^c	−0.286	0.75	(0.67–0.84)	< 0.001
Chair stands, s (linear)	0.125	1.13	(1.03–1.25)	< 0.001
Chair stands, s (spline) ^d	−0.063	0.94	(0.85–1.04)	< 0.001

BMI body mass index; CI confidence interval; COPD chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
^aOptimism-corrected coefficients, with shrinkage factor 0.946–0.951
^bDefined by validated cutoff score for Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression scale [25] (in ELSA, InCHIANTI, LASA) and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale-Depression subscale [26] (in ActiFE-ULM)
^cSince different tests were applied in the cohorts to assess gait speed, Z-scores were calculated per cohort:
Z_ActiFE-ULM = (m/s–1.12)/0.27; Z_ELSA = (m/s–0.97)/0.26; Z_InCHIANTI = (m/s–1.29)/0.20; Z_LASA = (m/s–0.95)/0.24
^dBeta for spline function can be applied by converting chair stands times using 10th, 50th, 90th percentiles of chair stands scores as knot locations: ((chairstand-7.73)³–1.73*(chairstand-10.60)³ + 0.73*(chairstand-14.53)³)/46.24. Values for the cubic terms were converted to zero if < 0

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