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Table 2 Comparison of AUCs in predicting short-term mortality of patients acutely presenting at the emergency department, grouped according to age: 40–69 years (middle-aged), and 70+ years (older)

From: Risk assessment models for potential use in the emergency department have lower predictive ability in older patients compared to the middle-aged for short-term mortality – a retrospective cohort study

AUC, 95% CI

Middle-aged

N = 22,653

Older

N = 19,889

P

ADAPT, 2-day mortality

0.80 (0.73–0.87)

0.76 (0.72–0.81)

0.40

ADAPT, 7-day mortality

0.72 (0.66–0.78)

0.71 (0.67–0.74)

0.69

CTA, 2-day mortality

0.83 (0.77–0.89)

0.78 (0.73–0.84)

0.22

CTA, 7-day mortality

0.79 (0.73–0.85)

0.73 (0.69–0.76)

0.09

Vital signs, 2-day mortality

0.89 (0.84–0.94)

0.81 (0.77–0.86)

0.02

Vital signs, 7-day mortality

0.88 (0.84–0.91)

0.75 (0.72–0.78)

< 0.001

Biomarkers, 2-day mortality

0.84 (0.78–0.90)

0.75 (0.71–0.79)

0.02

Biomarkers, 7-day mortality

0.86 (0.82–0.89)

0.76 (0.73–0.78)

< 0.001

suPAR, 2-day mortality

0.82 (0.66–0.97)

0.73 (0.64–0.81)

0.32

suPAR, 7-day mortality

0.82 (0.73–0.91)

0.77 (0.72–0.82)

0.32

  1. ADAPT Adaptive process triage, AUC Area under the curve, CI Confidence interval, CRP C-reactive protein, CTA Copenhagen triage algorithm, suPAR Soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor, Vitals: Prediction model using four vital signs (hear rate, oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure), Biomarker: Predictive model using levels of seven routine biomarkers (albumin, creatinine, c-reactive protein, haemoglobin, leucocytes, potassium, sodium)