Table 1 Key model input parameters
Parameter | Value | Source | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Population sub-model: | ||||
Fertility rate (used to calculate birth rate) | Total Fertility Rate Table for 2000 – 2011 | Singapore Department of Statistics 2012 | ||
Mortality rate | Complete Life Tables 2006-2011 for Singapore Resident Population | Singapore Department of Statistics 2011 | ||
Care arrangement sub-model: | Number of ADL limitations | Value | Range | Â |
Primary caregiver hours by disability caregivers without services and FDWb | 1 – 2 ADL | 31 | 24.8-37.2 | MCYS SSIC 2010/2011 |
3 – 4 ADL | 36 | 28.8-43.2 | ||
≥5 ADL | 42 | 33.6-50.4 | ||
Primary caregiver hours by disability caregivers without FDW but with servicesb | 1 – 2 ADL | 25 | 20-30 | MCYS SSIC 2010/2011 |
3 – 4 ADL | 48 | 38.4-57.6 | ||
≥5 ADL | 37 | 29.6-44.4 | ||
Proportion of families with FDWb | Use of FDW | Value | Range | Â |
With FDW | 0.491 | 0.39-0.59 | MCYS SSIC 2010/2011 | |
Without FDW | 0.509 | 0.41-0.61 | ||
Distribution of ADL limitations by agea | Number of ADL limitations | Â | ||
1 or 2 | 3 or 4 | 5 or 6 | Â | |
60 – 64 years | 0.0042 | 0.0069 | 0.0042 | MCYS SIHLS 2009 |
65 – 69 years | 0.0080 | 0.0109 | 0.0156 | MCYS SIHLS 2009 |
70 – 74 years | 0.0078 | 0.0230 | 0.0262 | MCYS SIHLS 2009 |
75 – 79 years | 0.0190 | 0.0427 | 0.0464 | MCYS SIHLS 2009 |
80 – 84 years | 0.0525 | 0.0892 | 0.0785 | MCYS SIHLS 2009 |
≥85 years | 0.1270 | 0.1432 | 0.1744 | MCYS SIHLS 2009 |
ADL incidence rate, annual | 0.00768 | Model calibration | ||
HCBS uptake rate | 0.20 | Estimate by LTC experts | ||
Capacity adjustment time, years | 1.5 | Estimate by LTC experts | ||
Prevalence of ≥1 ADL limitations needing human assistance in population 60+ years of age | 0.0478 | MCYS SIHLS 2009 | ||
Proportion of ADL-limited elderly with 1 to 2 ADL limitations needing human assistance | 0.36 | MCYS SIHLS 2009 | ||
Proportion of ADL-limited elderly with 3 to 4 ADL limitations needing human assistance | 0.24 | MCYS SIHLS 2009 | ||
Proportion of ADL-limited elderly with 5 or more ADL limitations needing human assistance | 0.40 | MCYS SIHLS 2009 | ||
Annual mortality rate for individuals 60Â years of age and older | 0.1134 | Singapore Department of Statistics 2012 | ||
Nursing home beds | Year | Number of beds | Â | |
2012 | 9,750 | Singapore Department of Statistics 2015 | ||
2020 | 14,900 | MOH 1997 | ||
2030 | 22,400 | MOH 1997 | ||
Primary informal family caregiver labor market participation sub-model: | ||||
Fraction of caregivers employed or employable | 0.65 | MCYS SSIC 2010/2011 | ||
Labor requirement estimate: | ||||
Adjusted patient to staff ratio at nursing homes | 5 | Regulation and Quality Improvement Authority 2009 | ||
Patient to staff ratio for HCBS | 7 | Estimate by LTC experts | ||
Patient to staff ratio for FDWs | 1 | Estimate by LTC experts | ||