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Table 1 Key model input parameters

From: Projecting the effects of long-term care policy on the labor market participation of primary informal family caregivers of elderly with disability: insights from a dynamic simulation model

Parameter Value Source
Population sub-model:
Fertility rate (used to calculate birth rate) Total Fertility Rate Table for 2000 – 2011 Singapore Department of Statistics 2012
Mortality rate Complete Life Tables 2006-2011 for Singapore Resident Population Singapore Department of Statistics 2011
Care arrangement sub-model: Number of ADL limitations Value Range  
Primary caregiver hours by disability caregivers without services and FDWb 1 – 2 ADL 31 24.8-37.2 MCYS SSIC 2010/2011
3 – 4 ADL 36 28.8-43.2
≥5 ADL 42 33.6-50.4
Primary caregiver hours by disability caregivers without FDW but with servicesb 1 – 2 ADL 25 20-30 MCYS SSIC 2010/2011
3 – 4 ADL 48 38.4-57.6
≥5 ADL 37 29.6-44.4
Proportion of families with FDWb Use of FDW Value Range  
With FDW 0.491 0.39-0.59 MCYS SSIC 2010/2011
Without FDW 0.509 0.41-0.61
Distribution of ADL limitations by agea Number of ADL limitations  
1 or 2 3 or 4 5 or 6  
60 – 64 years 0.0042 0.0069 0.0042 MCYS SIHLS 2009
65 – 69 years 0.0080 0.0109 0.0156 MCYS SIHLS 2009
70 – 74 years 0.0078 0.0230 0.0262 MCYS SIHLS 2009
75 – 79 years 0.0190 0.0427 0.0464 MCYS SIHLS 2009
80 – 84 years 0.0525 0.0892 0.0785 MCYS SIHLS 2009
≥85 years 0.1270 0.1432 0.1744 MCYS SIHLS 2009
ADL incidence rate, annual 0.00768 Model calibration
HCBS uptake rate 0.20 Estimate by LTC experts
Capacity adjustment time, years 1.5 Estimate by LTC experts
Prevalence of ≥1 ADL limitations needing human assistance in population 60+ years of age 0.0478 MCYS SIHLS 2009
Proportion of ADL-limited elderly with 1 to 2 ADL limitations needing human assistance 0.36 MCYS SIHLS 2009
Proportion of ADL-limited elderly with 3 to 4 ADL limitations needing human assistance 0.24 MCYS SIHLS 2009
Proportion of ADL-limited elderly with 5 or more ADL limitations needing human assistance 0.40 MCYS SIHLS 2009
Annual mortality rate for individuals 60 years of age and older 0.1134 Singapore Department of Statistics 2012
Nursing home beds Year Number of beds  
2012 9,750 Singapore Department of Statistics 2015
2020 14,900 MOH 1997
2030 22,400 MOH 1997
Primary informal family caregiver labor market participation sub-model:
Fraction of caregivers employed or employable 0.65 MCYS SSIC 2010/2011
Labor requirement estimate:
Adjusted patient to staff ratio at nursing homes 5 Regulation and Quality Improvement Authority 2009
Patient to staff ratio for HCBS 7 Estimate by LTC experts
Patient to staff ratio for FDWs 1 Estimate by LTC experts
  1. (ADL activity of daily living, IADL instrumental activity of daily living, MCYS Ministry of Community Development, Youth and Sports, SSIC Singapore Survey on Informal Caregiving, HCBS home- and community-based services, LTC long-term care, SIHLS Social Isolation, Health and Lifestyles Survey, FDW foreign domestic worker, MOH Ministry of Health)
  2. aAdjusted for the number of older adults residing in nursing homes
  3. bSensitivity analyses were performed for these parameters