Fig. 1

Incidence of major vascular events versus recreational physical activity (among 7564 participants). Hazard ratios (adjusted for age at risk, education and smoking) at ages 65–94 years for major vascular events versus physical activity were multiplied by a common factor (i.e. floated) to make the weighted average match the annual incidence of major vascular events in this cohort. Mean age at event was 80 years. Annual incidence was the unweighted average of the component 5-year incidence rates. Physical activity was subdivided into five prespecified categories (0, 1–14, 15–24, 25–39, ≥40 MET-hours per week) and hazard ratios plotted against the median of each category. For each category, area of square is inversely proportional to the variance of the category-specific log risk, which also determines the confidence interval. Incidence shown above each square and numbers of events below