Transitions in cognitive states from CSHA-1 to CSHA-2 as represented by errors on the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination Score. Transitions from CSHA-1 to CSHA-2. In each panel, each cell represents the cognitive state at baseline. Each X axis represents the cognitive state at follow-up. Each Y axis represents the probability of transition to the new cognitive state. The dots represent empirical data. The solid lines represent the model fit.