Figure 8

The 13-variable index distinguishes between short and long-lived subjects with respect to multiple sub-cohorts. The index was used to assign a risk score to each subject using leave-one-out cross validation. In this method, a score is assigned to each of the n subjects, based upon a model fit to data from the other n - 1 subjects included in the dataset. After a score had been assigned to all subjects, the median score among all subjects was calculated. Subjects were assigned to a "low-risk group" if their score was below the median value, and were assigned to a "high-risk group" if their score was above the median value. The solid red line corresponds to the estimated Kaplan-Meier survival curve for the low-risk group, and the solid black line corresponds to the estimated curve for the high-risk group. Dotted red and black lines represent 95% confidence limits. In part (A), survival curves were generated from all n = 4097 subjects. In parts (B) - (H), the analysis was performed with respect to certain sub-populations of subjects. These sub-populations include (B) the n = 426 subjects dying of cancer, (C) the n = 467 subjects with cardiovascular-related deaths, (D) the n = 586 subjects with non-accidental deaths unrelated to cancer or cardiovascular disease, (E) the n = 1776 past or present smokers, (F) the n = 2316 non-smokers, (G) the n = 274 diabetic subjects, and (H) the n = 3823 non-diabetic subjects. P-values were generated from a log-rank test of the null hypothesis that low and high-risk groups have identical Kaplan-Meier survival curves [116].